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Leading Off:

VA-Gov: For several weeks now, we've been watching Ken Cuccinelli slowly falling, Wile E. Coyote-style, into the box canyon while the slide-whistle plays, and it looks like Monday was the day the little puff of smoke finally appeared at the bottom. For starters, the Washington Post, via SRBI, issued what may be its final poll of the race, and they find Democrat Terry McAuliffe opening up a double-digit lead on Republican Ken Cuccinelli: 51-39, with Libertarian Robert Sarvis still clocking in at 8. (One month ago, WaPo found T-Mac 47, Cuccinelli 39, Sarvis 10.) Cuccinelli's favorables are now an unsalvageable 41/58, but he's still faring better than the national GOP, who rack up 32/65 favorables.

The attacks on Cuccinelli's social conservatism must be working, because the gender gap is just staggering: Cuccinelli is winning 45-44 among men, but McAuliffe leads 58-34 among women. Downballot, it's looking like a clean sweep for the Dems, with Ralph Northam leading E.W. Jackson 52-39 for Lt. Governor, and Mark Herring leading Mark Obenshain 49-46 for Attorney General.

The other data point from Monday showing the direness of Cuccinelli's situation is fundraising data released by VPAP for the month of October. During the Oct. 1-Oct. 23 period, McAuliffe raised $8.1 million and ends with $1.6 million cash on hand. Cuccinelli, who was essentially triaged by national Republicans weeks ago, raised $2.9 million and has $604K CoH.

Week-by-week VA-Gov spending
Week-by-week VA-Gov spending
When I saw a WaPo article titled "Why Terry McAuliffe is beating Ken Cuccinelli in 5 charts" I assumed it'd just be rehash of poll data about their favorables and Cuccinelli's extreme positions ... but no, it's chock full of great new data about campaign spending, both overall (T-Mac and allies have outspent Cooch and allies $22 mil to $14 mil total) and specifically on TV. In particular, T-Mac's campaign alone has spent more than Cuccinelli, the RGA, and all other GOP groups combined, without even factoring in the VA Dems, Next Gen, Planned Parenthood, and so on.

There are also handy breakdowns of TV spending by week and by TV market (while the GOP has avoided getting blown out in the downstate markets, they've been doubled-up on in the expensive DC market, which is, y'know, where most of the voters live). The most telling graphs are the week-by-week ones (one of which you can see above), where in the last few weeks the Dems are peaking just as the GOP is pointing almost straight down. There's some chicken-and-egg in how the Democrats' financial edge got built up (i.e. GOP donors shut their wallets after Cuccinelli started tanking in the polls, leading to the ad drawdown and further tanking in the polls), but at this point, there really seems no doubt how the last week is going to play out.

Senate:

LA-Sen: Congressman Bill Cassidy is not having a good month. His only announced Republican rival in the race to take on Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu, former Colonel Rob Maness, just scored a big endorsement from the Senate Conservatives Fund. Maness has struggled with fundraising but if the group can open some doors for him or pony up some cash, he could emerge as a real threat to Cassidy’s right flank.

Another Republican state legislator is also refusing to rule out jumping into the race. State Sen. Elbert Guillory, who became the first African American to serve in the Louisiana legislative Republican caucus after he switched parties in May, is the latest Anybody But Cassidy name. State Reps. Paul Hollis and Alan Seabaugh are also sniffing out the race.

A crowded Republican field would probably help Cassidy slip through the jungle primary and emerge as Landrieu’s December runoff opponent next year if Landrieu fails to win outright with over 50 percent of the vote. However, it’s quite possible Republican infighting will prevent the party from focusing on Landrieu and allow her to win outright or at least damage the eventual nominee too much for him to win in December. Landrieu is still quite vulnerable in this conservative state but Republicans are not making life easier for themselves. (Darth Jeff)

MS-Sen: State Sen. Chris McDaniel has just scored FreedomWork's endorsement in his primary campaign against Republican incumbent Thad Cochran (who has still not announced if he will run again). McDaniel already has the backing of the Club for Growth, the Senate Conservatives Fund, and the Madison Project. McDaniel, like virtually every tea party candidate, has a long career of rejecting taxes and spending that contrasts well to Cochran’s long history of funding pork barrel projects.

Except, of course, for the times McDaniel voted for more taxes and spending. Clarion Ledger columnist Geoff Pender lists some of McDaniel's greatest hits: a vote for a  $90 million hospital tax, support for a $17 million bailout for sweet potato farmers, a vote for a bill funding a number of museums, and my personal favorite:

But in 2011, he signed on as co-author to a bill that would have created a state health insurance exchange and allowed the exchange to charge "assessments or user fees to health carriers."
Ladies and gentlemen of the far right, your conservative champion. (Darth Jeff)

NH-Sen: We haven't heard much from Scott Brown one way or the other lately, but here's a clue he's still trying to stay politically viable: he re-formed The People's Seat PAC (which was the name of his old Senate PAC)... as a New Hampshire political committee. At first glance, that would suggest that he's forging ahead with a possible, if improbable, run against Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire. However, the PAC isn't connected with any specific candidate, and Brown lists the purpose merely as backing "strong, dedicated candidates." So, maybe it's a way to start buttering up lower-level Granite State GOP electeds as a prelude to a vanity presidential run in 2016 ... or just a way to keep his foot in the door while he mulls his options.

Gubernatorial:

FL-Gov: Nov. 4, the day before Election Day this year, is the big day for Charlie Crist. He says he'll be in St. Petersburg announcing ... something; he hasn't said what yet, and he says whatever it is, he isn't even fully decided yet. Given the timing (Nov. 1 is a change in a state law allowing a rise in caps on individual campaign contributions), his recent appearance working the crowd at the Democratic state party over the weekend, and the launch of a new candidate-ish website late last week, though, virtually all observers expect Crist to announce his gubernatorial candidacy at that point. (Now just watch as he announces he's running in the FL-13 special election...)

MD-Gov: As if Doug Gansler's drowning-in-a-sea-of-Kool-Aid gubernatorial bid didn't need one more piece of bad news, his principal Democratic primary rival, Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown, just got a top-tier union endorsement. The Maryland-DC council of the AFL-CIO gave its backing to Brown over the weekend; the council represents 296,000 workers in Maryland.

NE-Gov: Here's a decidedly new wrinkle in the open seat Nebraska gubernatorial race. You might remember that Republican AG Jon Bruning rather surprisingly lost the 2012 GOP Senate nomination, and earlier this year he turned down a shot at yet another Senate open seat in Nebraska. Well, now, his name has suddenly bubbled up for the gubernatorial race instead; he's been polling the race, apparently thinking that his name rec might help him prevail in a primary against five lesser-known Republicans.

This may be a shot across Bruning's bow, or just a coincidence, but two of Nebraska's GOP elder statespeople gave their backing on Monday to a different contender, businessman Pete Ricketts. The emphasis should be on "elder," though; it's not clear how many people will remember ex-Govs. Kay Orr (1987-1991) and Charles Thone (1979-1983).

NJ-Gov: He's large, he's charismatic, and he's created an effective public persona by walking the line between being bullying and being aw-shucks lovable ... no, I'm not talking about Chris Christie, I'm talking about former NBA star Shaquille O'Neal. It's not exactly clear how (or if) they know each other, but the new ad from the Christie camp features an endorsement from a sweater-and-tie-clad Shaq. O'Neal has previously been complimentary of Barack Obama and helped push Michelle Obama's child fitness plans, so it's also unclear whether he's actively dabbling in Republicanism now or just doing a personal favor.

NM-Gov: A prominent name is suddenly jumping without any of the usual prolonged name-floating into the New Mexico gubernatorial race's Democratic primary, where AG Gary King is the presumed frontrunner but hasn't made much headway on fundraising or generally revving people up, yet. It's not a prominent name from politics (though he does have a stint as a Michael Dukakis speechwriter in 1988 on his resume), but rather from business: it's Alan Webber, probably best known as creator of business magazine Fast Company. The question, for now, about Webber is whether he can and will self-fund.

RI-Gov: Some big developments out of this small state. Providence Mayor Angel Taveras made his long-expected bid for Governor official on Monday and he was greeted with an endorsement from the Rhode Island Association of Firefighters.

Taveras' likely rival for the Democratic nomination, state Treasurer Gina Raimondo, also made news when she directly addressed rumors she may run as an independent. Raimondo seemed to rule out a party switch pretty conclusively, agreeing with a reporter that if she runs she is one hundred percent certain to do it as a Democrat. It's also looking increasingly likely that the long awaited Taveras-Raimondo primary duel will turn into a three-way race. Former Obama administration official Clay Pell recently resigned from his job at the Department of Education and is meeting with Democratic groups.

On the Republican side, Cranston Mayor Allan Fung is expected to announce his candidacy Nov. 4. However, Fung won't have a clear path to the Republican nomination. Businessman and 2010 Moderate Party Gubernatorial nominee Ken Block has joined the Republican Party and announced he will run for Governor. Block spent $468,000 of his own money in 2010 to get 6.5 percent of the vote, and he is planning to self-fund again. (Darth Jeff)

House:

AL-06: The field to replace retiring Rep. Spencer Bachus in the 6th, one of the reddest districts in the country at 25% Obama, has been slow to take shape after a few likely frontrunners decided against it, but it finally has its first prominent candidate, Republican state Rep. Paul DeMarco, chair of Alabama's House Judiciary Committee. AL-01's upcoming establishment-vs.-nut runoff may be instructive in how well DeMarco is likely to fare against a more tea-flavored rival, in this case, surgeon Chad Mathis, who's also already in the race in the 6th.

MA-06, MA-Gov: There hadn't been much doubt this was happening, but now it's more-or-less official: Republican ex-state Sen. Richard Tisei, who narrowly lost a 2012 challenge to Rep. John Tierney, has filed an exploratory committee toward trying again in 2014. Tisei also issued a statement decrying "the hyper-partisanship exhibited by both parties on a daily basis." It's also worth noting that Tisei's decision brings some clarity to the gubernatorial race, as he'd been the last noteworthy GOPer who hadn't ruled out a bid there ... which likely means 2010 loser Charlie Baker will have an unimpeded path to the nomination for another try.

MN-06: A Roll Call article on self-funding candidates running for Congress points to some intel we missed somewhere in the last few months: former state Rep. Phil Krinkie not only threw his hat into the ring, but also put in $300K of his own money. Tom Emmer is widely considered to be the GOP frontrunner to replace the retiring Michele Bachmann, but Krinkie's money could help him standout as the non-Emmer in a crowded field. (The article also adds a new wrinkle to the candidacy of Republican Carl Domino in FL-18; although he's only put $125K of his own money into the race so far, he's self-funded much more than that in previous legislative races.)

NV-03: Somewhat out of the blue comes a primary challenge to Democrat Erin Bilbray, who already seems to have locked down establishment support for the nod to take on GOPer Joe Heck in this nearly 50-50 suburban district. She'll be facing Frank Kassela, who's never run for office before (and who doesn't seem to have even taken any positions on anything political before, having registered as a Democrat only last week), but who is well-known in the professional poker community and may have in fact earned so much money playing poker to self-fund. Kassela doesn't seem to have learned how to play the media game either, yet, seeing as how he simply filed unannounced on Monday and wasn't around to answer press follow-ups.

NV-04: A brief Ralston tweet is all we have to go on so far, but it sounds like Republican state Asm. Cresent Hardy has filed to run against freshman Dem Steve Horsford in the 54% Obama 4th. Hardy (whose name only popped up in connection with the race last week) represents a 45% Obama district in the Assembly, so he'll need to recalibrate quite a bit to run in this Dem-leaning suburban district.

WA-03: There's still no Democratic opponent in Washington's potentially-swingy 3rd district, but Jaime Herrera Beutler has a primary opponent now from the right, Michael Delavar. If Delavar's name sounds vaguely familiar, he's the commercial pilot who was the GOP's candidate in this district in 2008, getting flattened 64-36 by Brian Baird; the previous candidacy, though, is the only thing that particularly elevates him out of Some Paulist Dude territory.

Other races:

Boston Mayor: Well here’s something you don’t see everyday: a politician leaking unfavorable internal poll numbers. But that’s exactly what City Councilor John Connolly did in a presentation to his finance committee. He revealed that his latest three-day tracking poll shows him tied 43-43 with his rival state Rep. Marty Walsh. By contrast, a Connolly poll from early October showed him beating Walsh 44 to 32. No memo has been released for this latest survey.

Is Connolly trying to warn his team against complacency or has the race really settled into a dead heat? Unfortunately, independent polls aren’t answering that question yet. A recent MassINC survey showed Connolly up only 41 to 39, while a University of New Hampshire poll from the same period has Connolly leading 47-38. Only time will tell what the state of the race really is. (Darth Jeff)

Novoyork autonomous okrug administrator: Comrades! Even the hegemonic organ of the haute bourgeoisie, the New York Times, must now acknowledge the imminent triumph of the vanguard of the revolutionary masses, led by the father of the great family, Bill de Blasiovich! Research by Marist University demonstrates even greater productivity from laborers on the de Blasiovich campaign, crushing the reactionary Lhotaite saboteurs, 68-23; favorables for the running dog Joe Lhota have been driven even further downward, to 25/27.

Footage of most recent de Blasiovich/Lhota debate
Footage of most recent de Blasiovich/Lhota debate
Special Elections: South Carolina's 93rd state House District is a vacant Democratic seat centered in Calhoun County where a special election will be held Tuesday. The candidates are Democrat Russell Ott, the son of the previous incumbent, and Republican Charles Stoudemire, who ran for this seat in 2010 and received a third of the vote. (Johnny Longtorso)

VA-AG: With the bell tolling prematurely for Ken Cuccinelli, the marquee event in Virginia has drifted down to the Attorney General's race, one of only three statewide offices in Virginia and the one that's the usual stepping stone to the gubernatorial mansion. The Republicans seem to know this is their only shot at preserving one of those three offices, and the Republican State Leadership Committee (the GOP equivalent to the DLCC, focused on legislative and downballot races) has just pumped another $660,000 into the campaign of the GOP candidate, state Sen. Mark Obenshain (to whom they've already given over $2 million). In a contrast with the gubernatorial race, the GOP actually leads in ad spending in the AG race: Obenshain has spent $1.6 million on ads, compared with $1 million for Dem rival state Sen. Mark Herring.

All that may still be for naught, though: the Virginia Democratic Party just released an internal poll, taken by Garin Hart Yang, putting Herring ahead of Obenshain 45-42. (See also the similar numbers in the WaPo poll, mentioned above.) The VA Dems are also out with a new ad that doesn't explicitly equate Obenshain to Cuccinelli's social conservatism, but that is entirely centered around Obenshain's support for Virginia's controversial transvaginal ultrasound law.

VA State House: In case there was any doubt that the Democrats are poised to do some damage to the Republicans' large edge in the Virginia House of Delegates, here's a leaked internal poll in a fourth race showing a neck-and-neck contest. It isn't even in one of the NoVa seats that have been highest on people's radars: it's in HD-94, a 52% Obama seat in Newport News held by GOP freshman David Yancey. A new Myers Research poll for his Democratic opponent, firefighter Rob Farinholt, puts Yancey ahead only 48-47 on the named ballot (and Generic D ahead of Generic R 48-41). Atop the ticket, Terry McAuliffe leads 50-40 in the district.

Grab bag:

Previews: In case you missed them over the weekend, Daily Kos Elections is out with multiple previews of next week's general elections. Steve Singiser looks at the races in New Jersey and Virginia, where the focus has started to drift down from the gubernatorial races to the legislatures and the Virginia AG race, while David Jarman looks at two very small races (a $15 minimum wage measure in SeaTac, Washington, and a county council fight over a coal terminal in Whatcom County, Washington) that have very big implications.

And if you're wondering what big city mayor's races are worth watching on Election Night, check out Darth Jeff's preview of November's most competitive mayoral elections. Some we've mentioned in the digest before, while others are new but offer exciting and unpredictable match-ups.

Site Features: Daily Kos Elections is proud to unveil our new elections calendar. For the first time anywhere, data on every state legislative special election, gubernatorial race, and notable mayoral race, county executive election, and ballot initiative is in one place complete with candidate lists and poll closing times. The calendar currently includes 2013's remaining races and we will be keeping it going for 2014 and beyond. (Darth Jeff)

WATN?: Ex-Rep. Rick Renzi was one of the names that always got tossed around like Bob Ney and Duke Cunningham when it came to delivering the litany of corrupt House GOPers in orbit around Tom DeLay during the Republican Party's mid-00s glory days. Justice seems kind of delayed here (seeing as how DeLay, Ney, and Cunningham are already out of prison), but Renzi finally got his comeuppance too; he was sentenced to 3 years on Monday after being convicted on 17 counts including extortion and racketeering.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Tue Oct 29, 2013 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Im pretty excited for the war withing the VA GOP (23+ / 0-)

    After Cuccinelli loses by more than 10. This was Cuccinelli's race to lose and he did. Badly. It's going to get ugly the VA GOP for the next few years.

    •  From your mouth to the ears of God/the FSM/the (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lgmcp, mstep, SouthernLeveller, Stude Dude

      cold, uncaring universe.

    •  I would think that TP shenanigans continue to (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stude Dude

      embarrass any surving moderate Republicans.  In other words I suspect the Libertarian's numbers are essential to McAuliffe's present favorable trajectory.  I'd think Independent candidates of any stripe are likely to be trending fast among frustrated R's.

      "The extinction of the human race will come from its inability to EMOTIONALLY comprehend the exponential function." -- Edward Teller

      by lgmcp on Tue Oct 29, 2013 at 07:04:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Democrats are golden nationally (5+ / 0-)

        If we can reliably turn Virginia.

        And the evidence is mounting that Virginia is turning reliably Democratic.

        We can win Presidential elections with the Old Dominion solidly blue.

        Virginia, Florida, and we seem to be making real headway on North Carolina.

        Republicans are beginning to have nowhere to hide on the national level.

        And the really beautiful thing is Virginia's going blue at the state grassroots level, too.

        If we can just take back state governments of other blue states ....

        And someday pick off Texas.

        To a Democrat, "democracy" means "free elections." To a Republican, "free markets."

        by XOVER on Tue Oct 29, 2013 at 07:46:49 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  The Guardian has.... (0+ / 0-)

      a contrarian view on this:

      There has been a lot of talk about the possible electoral consequences of the government shutdown. And while the 2014 midterm elections are still a year away, we have two elections in 2013 that can serve as test cases of sorts. In both the New Jersey special Senate and Virginia gubernatorial races, the Democrat was against the shutdown, while the Republican was not. The Democrats have tried to make hay with this, but has it worked? The evidence available suggests that it has not.

      snip

       Ken Cuccinelli was a sitting duck before any shutdown hit. His favorable ratings had been dropping since way back in July, and smart analysts like Sean Trende were predicting his defeat from May onwards. One could argue that the ideology that brought Republicans into a showdown with President Obama harmed them significantly in Virginia; the shutdown itself, however, shows no real effect.

      An average of the final live interview surveys in the two weeks leading up to the shutdown had McAuliffe ahead by 6.3pt. An average of the live interview polls over the last two weeks has him up by 7.3pt. That's not much movement at all. In fact, Quinnipiac went with the headline "Shutdown Hurt Virginia, But Not Republican In Gov Race" on their latest survey.

      What's more surprising, in fact, is that McAuliffe's inability to pull away conclusively comes as he mobilises a big advertisement advantage in the weeks since the shutdown. McAuliffe and his allies have been outspending Cuccinelli and his supporters by ratios of 3:2, 5:2, and 13:2 in the last three weeks, as Domenico Montanaro first reported. These are the types of numbers you'd think would move the dial; yet they really haven't.

      Overall, the 2013 major statewide elections don't show any proof that the federal shutdown harmed Republicans electorally. In both the New Jersey Senate and Virginia gubernatorial election, the Democratic and Republican positions mirrored those of their national parties. Since the time of the shutdown, there was not a marked deterioration of Republican numbers in either contest.

      Free markets would be a great idea, if markets were actually free.

      by dweb8231 on Tue Oct 29, 2013 at 07:59:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'm not sure what the Guardian means (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        PassionateJus, Aquarius40, erichiro

        When it says that McAuliffe hasn't been able to pull away conclusively. Consistently leading by 6+ (and now 10+) isn't a close election.

        •  Maybe they hadn't gotten the (0+ / 0-)

          latest numbers at the time this was written.  The 12 point WP/ABC lead for McAuliffe certainly indicates some pulling away, as it's an improvement over the 8 point lead TMac had before, which is a substantial lead regardless of what Harry Enten thinks it should be.

          Judging from the recent slant of his columns, I bet that if Cuccinelli were ahead by one point or tied, Enten would be saying that all is peachy-keen for the GOP nationally in 2014 and 16.

          38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

          by Mike in MD on Tue Oct 29, 2013 at 09:47:14 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I knew that was Enten before you said so (0+ / 0-)

            What is it with all the concern trolling with these guys?

            "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

            by conspiracy on Tue Oct 29, 2013 at 11:09:21 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  They have it wrong. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Aquarius40, ArcticStones

        McAuliffe was generally around the +4 range pre-shutdown and was never above 50%.  In fact, I don't think any poll had him higher than 46% or 47% at best.  Now he has climbed over the 50% barrier in a 3 person race.  That is significant movement in his direction, especially given that these off-year election polls tend to be more weighted towards Republicans because of turnout assumptions.  Given the big fundraising advantage McAuliffe has, he is going to get a big turnout in Dem counties while holding his own in GOP counties.  I don't think anyone had McAuliffe winning this race by double digits at the start of this campaign.  That is a real possibility right now.

        Global Shakedown - Alternative rock with something to say. Check out their latest release, "A Time to Recognize": Available on iTunes, Amazon, Google Play, Spotify and other major online music sites. Visit http://www.globalshakedown.com.

        by khyber900 on Tue Oct 29, 2013 at 09:47:48 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  The ag number is still too close. State GOPs may (12+ / 0-)

    eventually end up with (before joining the Whigs) with mainly a number of state ags, a remnant of past perceptions of Democrats as soft on crime. Although if Democrats do win the Virg. ag they will have taken the Pa. and Virg. ags (an omen, perhaps).

  •  Politics has become the TV support industry n/t (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Amber6541, mmacdDE
  •  C H O K E (6+ / 0-)

    That spending graph shows how much faith the Cuccinelli campaign has in his chances: next to nothin'.

    The USA and the rest of the world face a dangerous enemy that not only threatens our freedom but our very existence. This enemy is deeply embedded within society and is actively working towards our annihilation. That enemy is ignorance.

    by Ex Con on Tue Oct 29, 2013 at 06:06:31 AM PDT

  •  One minor beef (0+ / 0-)

    How about giving us the election dates?

    What we call god is merely a living creature with superior technology & understanding. If their fragile egos demand prayer, they lose that superiority.

    by agnostic on Tue Oct 29, 2013 at 06:07:19 AM PDT

  •  Finally, women are no longer assuming the (8+ / 0-)

    draconian measures these asshats want are not real or couldn't happen.....campaign with the Duggers, not a Win with women!!

    but why are men voting Cuccinelli?

    "The poor can never be made to suffer enough." Jimmy Breslin

    by merrywidow on Tue Oct 29, 2013 at 06:12:01 AM PDT

  •  but: get to the polls - GET TO THE POLLS!!! (10+ / 0-)

    I don't care if he's crumpled like a wal-mart suit, WE STILL NEED TO VOTE HIM OUT

    If  I lived in VA, I'd be in the line right now

    trying to stay alive 'til I reach 65!

    by chmood on Tue Oct 29, 2013 at 06:18:19 AM PDT

  •  Kookinelli's down? Well then, time to kick him (5+ / 0-)

    where it hurts. Seriously - I'd be happy enough with a McAuliffe win, but what I want is a stomping to make Virginia look like New York.

    Why? Two reasons:

    First, it will utterly discredit the notion that kooks like Kookinelli can get anywhere in swing States, thus hopefully restoring a bit of sanity to the Right (I'd prefer a sane, corrupt GOP to a batshit-crazy GOP - at least Gingrich's GOP didn't constantly flirt with default).

    Second, the more convincing McAuliffe's win is, the more Democrats he'll be able to help over the line downballot.

    Who knows? Perhaps the lege will even turn blue, and we can revisit those godawful House maps.

    "Violence never requires translation, but it often causes deafness." - Bareesh the Hutt.

    by Australian2 on Tue Oct 29, 2013 at 06:31:13 AM PDT

  •  Not So Fast (4+ / 0-)

    Today is the day gravity took hold as he noticed the absence of ground beneath his feet. The little puff of smoke will be on Election Day.

    On the Internet, nobody knows if you're a dog... but everybody knows if you're a jackass.

    by stevemb on Tue Oct 29, 2013 at 06:35:06 AM PDT

  •  NM-Gov (0+ / 0-)

    Dunno about this story.

    A prominent name is suddenly jumping without any of the usual prolonged name-floating into the New Mexico gubernatorial race's Democratic primary, where AG Gary King is the presumed frontrunner but hasn't made much headway on fundraising or generally revving people up, yet. It's not a prominent name from politics (though he does have a stint as a Michael Dukakis speechwriter in 1988 on his resume), but rather from business: it's Alan Webber, probably best known as creator of business magazine Fast Company. The question, for now, about Webber is whether he can and will self-fund.
    f

    I guess I'm not exactly keyed in to party buzz.  Susana Martinez is disgustingly popular, so I'm sorry to say whoever we run will face an uphill battle.  Personally I like Gary King quite a lot, though it's true he's not creating a stir.  But someone like Webber will face a LOT of scepticism here.  10 years residency is as nothing from the point of view of New Mexicans.  

    "The extinction of the human race will come from its inability to EMOTIONALLY comprehend the exponential function." -- Edward Teller

    by lgmcp on Tue Oct 29, 2013 at 06:42:13 AM PDT

  •  What's Wrong with Virginians? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ahumbleopinion, Stude Dude

    Mcauliffe is spending double Cuccinelli, by double-digit $millions. Mcauliffe has spent his career running winning campaigns (eg. Clinton) working right there in the DC/Virginia area. Republicans are detested there while Democrats are only disliked, and his opponent's ticket is shoving the obviously deranged Jackson towards power. Yet all he's got to show for it is a dozen points advantage (possibly single digits considering the margin of error).

    This race under those conditions should feature a 30 point margin, like 65:35% (about 2:1). What is wrong with Virginians?

    Indeed, what is wrong with Americans? Republicans have only a 35 seat (8%) majority in the House, while they're detested nationwide to an unprecedented extent for what they've actually done (and blatantly not done). Yet it's still unlikely Democrats will take back the majority by even a single seat. Yes, 6-8 points of popular vote are stolen by Republican gerrymandering, but it shouldn't even be that close. Americans should be throwing out at least 100 Republicans, and probably more like 200, even if they also throw out 50 Democrats.

    The voters in this country are not competent to choose who to run the country. And the "consent of the governed" grows weaker with every election, too. The democracy is in deep trouble. Even Democrats winning these elections isn't a good enough sign. Unless it's part of an ongoing wave that lasts at least three biennial elections, to sweep the Senate and everything else clean(er), we're going further down the spiral we've been sliding down since Nixon's landslide reelection.

    "When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro." - HST

    by DocGonzo on Tue Oct 29, 2013 at 06:46:20 AM PDT

    •  Fox Nooz, right wing radio, etc. (4+ / 0-)

      Rural areas should be strongly progressive--after all, what have the Koch brothers ever done to make their lives better? But no, Barack Obama committed the sin of Being President While Black.

      And God said, "Let there be light"; and with a Big Bang, there was light. And God said "Ow! Ow My eyes!" and in a flash God separated light from darkness. "Whew! Now that's better. Now where was I. Oh yea . . ."

      by Pale Jenova on Tue Oct 29, 2013 at 06:57:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Former Capitol of the Confederacy (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DocGonzo

      HQ of the Southern Massive Resistance movement in response to the Civil Rights movement. I went to segregated schools until 6th grade when "all deliberate speed" finally got to SE Virginia in 1971. I went to Middle School and High School with some of these people, and while I don't dwell on FB I peek enough to see that many (thankfully not most of them) of them have reverted to the beliefs of their Antebellum ancestors.

      Change does not roll in on the wheels of inevitability, but comes through continuous struggle. --Martin Luther King Jr.

      by Egalitare on Tue Oct 29, 2013 at 07:02:06 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Lots of factors (3+ / 0-)

      Apathy for one.  I can't tell you how many people I see on fb for example who are proudly claiming that they're done voting.  The rant by Russell Brand hasn't done us any favors in that regard.  The thing that kills me is they're disgusted with Obama based on GOP lies.  They're too lazy to do a quick snopes search to debunk the lies.  

      Disenfranchisement.  The GOP has disenfranchised many traditionally Democratic voters.  

      Gerrymandering has locked in many GOP pols.  Many traditionally Dem voters in those areas have all but given up and resigned themselves to being represented by those GOP reps.  That affects races up and down the ballots.  

      The GOP has done everything to get turnout down.  The lower the turnout the more favorable the outcome for the GOP.  If you had mandatory voting you would see the outcomes be dramatically different.

      This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

      by DisNoir36 on Tue Oct 29, 2013 at 07:04:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Polling (0+ / 0-)

        I don't think the factors you mentioned affect the polling numbers. They do affect the only poll that actually matters, on Election Day. But the rigging numbers don't seem to add up to what should be a minimum 30 point margin for Democrats.

        The other responses so far to my post do seem to explain, especially "Mcauliffe's Weak". Very possibly if Mcauliffe were actually liberal, not Clinton-centrist, and had leadership charisma, then the starker differences would be reflected in the poll.

        "When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro." - HST

        by DocGonzo on Tue Oct 29, 2013 at 09:58:22 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  MacAuliffe is weak. (5+ / 0-)

      I am a die-hard Clinton supporter but while he was head of the DNC, his Sunday morning talk show appearances were an embarrassment to me. His success was in fundraising, not in rallying the base. His specialty isn't in trading body blows but in promoting compromise and in coalition building.

      His high profile made him the face of the Clinton Administration and his zeal in fundraising for them led to his having a reputation for cutting corners.

      Overall, Virginia is trending blue, but outside the two most populous counties in Northern Virginia, it's at best purple and at worst it's Alabama (to paraphrase James Carville).

      Kos's conclusion that Democrats need to run to the left in Virginia is a questionable conclusion, to me. I'd love for it to be the case and there's no doubt that appealing to the base motivates it to vote, but MacAuliffe is no leftist champion; he's a moderate in the mold of WJC. In transitional electoral areas, my belief is that an appeal to the center is more constructive.

      The victorious strategist only seeks battle after the victory has been won, whereas he who is destined to defeat first fights and afterwards looks for victory.

      by Pacifist on Tue Oct 29, 2013 at 07:15:33 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  appeal to the center (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        micsimov, Pacifist, Stude Dude, Aquarius40

        This is the one year it probably didn't matter, given how hard Cuccinelli has been working to energize Democratic turnout. But you are right. A center-left coalition is the way to go in Virginia. Strictly left will only get you Alexandria, Arlington, and the city of Richmond, not nearly enough votes.

        You will not be punished for your anger. You will be punished by your anger.

        by mstep on Tue Oct 29, 2013 at 07:50:54 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  not in Va (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DocGonzo

      You drive 25 miles away from Northern Va and Va is still like  Alabama. Luckily the rural areas don't have all that many people.
      We have a split country, Urban and Rural totally look at the world differently.

    •  And Eww is still polling at 39%? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      micsimov, DocGonzo, Aquarius40

      Where is this support coming from?

      And Christine O'Donnell still managed to get 40% in Delaware. Makes me scratch my head.

    •  McAuliffe was never predicted to win this race (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DocGonzo

      by double digits at the beginning.  Many gave Cuccinelli an edge in an off-year election.  McAuliffe has basically gone from a mid 40's candidate to over 50% in a 3 person race.  He has moved a +4 race to a +10 race.  That's big time movement.

      VA is not CA.....not yet anyway.  This election might change that.  Democrats have slowly changed the public mindset to make the GOP's hot button issues have less impact.  

      Global Shakedown - Alternative rock with something to say. Check out their latest release, "A Time to Recognize": Available on iTunes, Amazon, Google Play, Spotify and other major online music sites. Visit http://www.globalshakedown.com.

      by khyber900 on Tue Oct 29, 2013 at 09:51:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  VA HD-94 (0+ / 0-)

    This seat used to be held by Alan Diamonstein , who was part of the tag team of "Big Al and Little Al" (the other "Al" being Alson "Al" Smith who represented Winchester, most notably the hometown of Patsy Cline) who were significant fundraisers for a certain Charles S. Robb. Diamonstein was one of my early political mentors and despite his very insider status, remains a jovial and good soul.

    Change does not roll in on the wheels of inevitability, but comes through continuous struggle. --Martin Luther King Jr.

    by Egalitare on Tue Oct 29, 2013 at 06:56:18 AM PDT

  •  Chart #3 has a boss tenor trombone lick in it! (0+ / 0-)
  •  I heard Cuccinelli's campaign is broke. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    micsimov

    I heard on the radio that he was unable to pay for ads he'd contracted for with television stations so they didn't run. I'm hearing better numbers being bandied about than just "double digit," but if MacAuliffe is able to beat the point spread with the Libertarian in the race, he'll have the political winds at his back.

    The victorious strategist only seeks battle after the victory has been won, whereas he who is destined to defeat first fights and afterwards looks for victory.

    by Pacifist on Tue Oct 29, 2013 at 07:03:04 AM PDT

  •  If McAuliffe Wins... (3+ / 0-)

    ...it will be the first time in 40 years that the party that holds the White House has won a VA governor's election so the word will net to get out that the tea party and government shutdown show the Republican party in its death throes .

    Of course the media would only spin it that way if the situation were reversed, but we need to make that case.

    Not that any of us should be taking a McAuliffe win/Cuccinelli loss for granted at this point regardless of what the polls say.

    “I believe all Southern liberals come from the same starting point--race. Once you figure out they are lying to you about race, you start to question everything.” ― Molly Ivins

    by RoIn on Tue Oct 29, 2013 at 07:06:12 AM PDT

  •  McAuliffe now over 50%. That's a good sign (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, secret38b

    He has had a steady climb over the past 6-8 weeks. Time to finish this off strong and send a message to the GOP for 2014.

    Global Shakedown - Alternative rock with something to say. Check out their latest release, "A Time to Recognize": Available on iTunes, Amazon, Google Play, Spotify and other major online music sites. Visit http://www.globalshakedown.com.

    by khyber900 on Tue Oct 29, 2013 at 07:31:18 AM PDT

  •  the ads are all for TM (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Aquarius40

    From what I see from Md, you don't even see any Cuccinelli ads running in the Dc area. Terry is running a lot plus outside groups are running a good ad about how extreme the cooch is.

  •  Keep the support up for Herring! (4+ / 0-)

    I am going to chip in for him today. Got a big, glossy mailer from Obensturmbannfurher or whatever his name is about how Herring will let rapists, murderers, etc. walk free. That is a call to action!

    Seriously, if Kaine or Warner were in this race they would get 60% but McAuliffe is running the best race that he can and that will be good enough.

    Contribute to Herring and the HoD and VA-Sen seats that are winnable, people! Turn out some of Boss Howell's minions in the House, turn the Senate blue, win all 3 top races, and then boot out the baggers from the Congressional group next year!

  •  If McAuliffe wins, I think he's going to surprise (5+ / 0-)

    the hell out of us all.  For one thing, unlike our current governor, McDonnell, McAuliffe is a millionaire several times over. He won't have his hand in the till.

    For another, however his "glad-handing" approach to life may turn off some people, it might be just the thing to get the "Republic" members of the legislature to vote "yes" on decent legislation.

    Moreover, he's had enough campaign cash to hire the best people. I'm sure they'll have told him who constitutes his base and what he needs to do to nurture it.

    If he wins, I'm looking forward to some great times for Virginia.  Somehow, when we've had Democratic governors, things have always gone well for this commonwealth.

    "Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon

    by Diana in NoVa on Tue Oct 29, 2013 at 08:06:46 AM PDT

  •  I'd say I was once again proud to live in Virginia (0+ / 0-)

    but having such scum on the ballot won't let me.  At least the people saw through it.  Unfortunately I live among too many of those who did not.

    An idea is not responsible for who happens to be carrying it at the moment. It stands or falls on its own merits.

    by don mikulecky on Tue Oct 29, 2013 at 08:17:42 AM PDT

  •  I think the most important races (0+ / 0-)

    next week may be the VA AG and the state legislature races in both NJ and VA. NJ Gov and VA Gov/Lt. Gov. appear to have had their basic dynamics locked before the shutdown and not to have been changed much by the anti-GOP backlash. Further downticket will tell the tale.

    "I was not born for myself alone, but for my neighbor as well as myself."--Richard Overton, leader of the Levellers, a17th C. movement for democracy and equality during the English Civil War.

    by SouthernLeveller on Tue Oct 29, 2013 at 08:27:46 AM PDT

    •  NJ Legislature (0+ / 0-)

      As a near-native of the state, I don't see much coat-tail effect from this; most non-R's will vote for their Dem incumbents, while much of Christie's support is in safe R districts. In other words, he'll do really well in strongly R areas of the state, and do better than the R average in (urban) bluer districts, while not doing as well in the few swing districts that exist.

  •  Loved the de Blasio update. Well played. (0+ / 0-)

    Long live the revolution.

    You can do whatever you want to us, but we're not going to sit here and listen to you badmouth the United States of America.

    by Eric Stratton on Tue Oct 29, 2013 at 10:21:14 AM PDT

  •  That calendar is a fantastic resource! (0+ / 0-)

    America is not 317 million individual boats afloat on an ocean; America is an ocean supporting 317 million boats.

    by Jimdotz on Tue Oct 29, 2013 at 10:57:04 AM PDT

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