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The Associated Press is the latest to explain why so many got the latest Congressional Budget Office report so wrong.

WASHINGTON (AP) -- New estimates that President Barack Obama's health care law will encourage millions of Americans to leave the workforce or reduce their work hours have touched off an I-told-you-so chorus from Republicans, who've claimed all along that the law will kill jobs. But some aren't telling it straight.[...]

The study estimates that the workforce will be reduced by the equivalent of 2.3 million full-time workers by 2021 as people choose to leave it. More would take early retirement, work fewer hours or otherwise rearrange their work-home balance to take advantage of new subsidies for health insurance and new markets for individual policies that don't depend on having a job.

In a key point overlooked in the GOP response, the report says: "The estimated reduction stems almost entirely from a net decline in the amount of labor that workers choose to supply, rather than from a net drop in businesses' demand for labor."

In other words, workers aren't being laid off. They are taking themselves out of the workforce, in many cases opening job opportunities for others.

http://finance.yahoo.com/...

To people who don't listen to explanations, explaining things to them is always a losing proposition.

For those who honestly do want to understand the truth in the midst of competing claims, the AP summarizes the Obamacare section of the CBO report in this short and sweet paragraph:

The predicted withdrawal from the labor market is no more a killer of jobs than today's surge of retirements by baby boomers entering old age. If anything, it could open job opportunities for people who can't get in the workforce now.
http://finance.yahoo.com/...

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (10+ / 0-)

    "I am not interested in picking up crumbs of compassion thrown from the table of someone who considers himself my master. I want the full menu of rights." (From "You Said a Mouthful" by Bishop Desmond Tutu - South African bishop & activist, b.1931)

    by FiredUpInCA on Wed Feb 05, 2014 at 07:06:24 PM PST

  •  Alex Wagner @ 'Now" did a very fine job on this.. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    FiredUpInCA

    ..with analysis from Jarod Bernstein of CBPP and Josh Green.

    Also with response from Henry Waxman and a clip of testimony from CBO director Douglas Elmendorf  

    (short ad - sorry)
    transcript @ link:  http://video.msnbc.msn.com/...

    ..and Paul Ryan explaining the economic danger of  "Job-Lock".

    Exactly the opposite "story" republicans are squealing about today. Opposite the truth.

    And PPACA tightens up the labor market and will give people more power and raise wages
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    Thx FiredUpInCA - you're being very kind calling it "off key" - imo
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    And this is completely OT but since Paul Ryan did such a good job explaining the Dems position on PPACA back in 2009 why not have Ryan explain Keynsian economics too from back in 2005:

    Paul Ryan advocates Keynesian economics  

    “You have to spend a little to grow a little…What we’re trying to do is stimulate that part of the economy that is on its back”

    Democrats supported stimulus under GWB but republicans refuse under Obama. Republicans have proven they will wreck the economy to gain power. They don’t  deserve are unqualified to lead the country in any office top to bottom.

    Up with Chris Hayes version (with commercial from website with video) and further discussion of why it matters that Ryan once supported stimulus spending.


     http://www.msnbc.msn.com/...

    And from mediaite web site
     http://www.mediaite.com/...

    My comment from awhile ago:
     http://www.dailykos.com/...
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Yes about truth;  I'm trying to figure out the best way to frame a new truth:

    The republicans and the only constituents they service/shill for (corpo/1%ers) have gone from public nuisance status to a full blown public hazard - imo (economically, environmentally, voting rights, womens reproductive rights; on everything I can think of)- and today the MSM proved they're not to far behind

  •  I'm just thankful for the potential groundswell in (0+ / 0-)
  •  Did the study analyze what effect the reduction .. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    FiredUpInCA

    in contributed hours would have upon existing unemployment?  Or was that aspect overlooked.

    "Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity, and I am not sure about the universe." -- Albert Einstein

    by Neuroptimalian on Thu Feb 06, 2014 at 04:25:48 PM PST

    •  CBO: ACA will fuel demand, reduce unemployment (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Neuroptimalian

      The CBO says that in the short term unemployment will decrease as subsidized health will drive consumer demand for health services. Also the newly acquired disposable income no longer being spent on costly health insurance will be spent elsewhere, creating demand and labor needs, for other services.

      Labor Market Effects of the Affordable Care Act: Updated Estimates

      How Much Will the ACA Reduce Employment in the Longer Term?

      The ACA’s largest impact on labor markets will probably occur after 2016, once its major provisions have taken full effect and overall economic output nears its maximum sustainable level.[...]

      Why Will Those Reductions Be Smaller in the Short Term?

      CBO estimates that the ACA will cause smaller declines in employment over the 2014–2016 period than in later years, for three reasons. First, fewer people will receive subsidies through health insurance exchanges in that period, so fewer people will face the implicit tax that results when higher earnings reduce those subsidies.

      Second, CBO expects the unemployment rate to remain higher than normal over the next few years, so more people will be applying for each available job—meaning that if some people seek to work less, other applicants will be readily available to fill those positions and the overall effect on employment will be muted.

      Third, the ACA’s subsidies for health insurance will both stimulate demand for health care services and allow low-income households to redirect some of the funds that they would have spent on that care toward the purchase of other goods and services—thereby increasing overall demand. That increase in overall demand while the economy remains somewhat weak will induce some employers to hire more workers or to increase the hours of current employees during that period.

      http://www.cbo.gov/...

      "I am not interested in picking up crumbs of compassion thrown from the table of someone who considers himself my master. I want the full menu of rights." (From "You Said a Mouthful" by Bishop Desmond Tutu - South African bishop & activist, b.1931)

      by FiredUpInCA on Fri Feb 07, 2014 at 02:54:47 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Interesting. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        FiredUpInCA

        So the CBO expects unemployment unrelated to the ACA to rise generally over the next few years.

        Second, CBO expects the unemployment rate to remain higher than normal over the next few years, so more people will be applying for each available job—meaning that if some people seek to work less, other applicants will be readily available to fill those positions and the overall effect on employment will be muted.
        That would seem to be the only way that sentence can be interpreted, if they believe the overall effect will be "muted".

        "Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity, and I am not sure about the universe." -- Albert Einstein

        by Neuroptimalian on Fri Feb 07, 2014 at 05:21:29 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

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